Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Where’s That Crystal Ball When I Need It?

If you had asked me early in 2010 how real estate was doing in Paradise Valley I would have hesitatingly told you real estate prices looked like they were stabilizing. Ask me now, and I'll tell you I don't know anything about what's going to happen. Throughout the summer the number of sales was so high that when I did my monthly report I focused on number of units sold. September was dismal with only 15 sales compared with 34 in August. A few days ago when I did the report for October and number of sales was back up (26), I decided instead of looking at the number of sales I would take a look at how prices of sales in October compare with the first 6 months of 2010. Using their list of pending sales, the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service had predicted another slide in prices valleywide, but would the same be true in the Paradise Valley luxury market ? The answer – yes. I was shocked! I prefer to be the bearer of good news, and yet I am committed to report true facts. It doesn't matter when the home was built, before 2000 or after, October sales report a 10% drop in price from the first 6 months of the year. Of course whether or not this news is good or bad depends on your perspective. If you are a seller I would tell you not to sell now if you don't have to, if you're looking to buy you're probably ecstatic that your dream home has yet to appear.

The details of every sale are on my website. Go to and click on Search Paradise Valley. I think you will find it fascinating to see how actual sales prices compare with the original and final listing prices, as well as how the number of days on market are affected by high original listing prices. Send me an email and I'll send you the report every month.